Is the "second half" of the bull run already starting? Glassnode: Bitcoin demand is cooling down, and funds are flowing into alts.

The latest report from the crypto market analysis company Glassnode points out that Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs similar to those of the later stages of historical bull run cycles—demand slowing down, accelerated capital rotation, and a surge in altcoin trading enthusiasm. This may indicate that the "second half" of this bull run has begun, with capital shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins in search of higher returns.

Bitcoin Cycle Comparison: Has Entered the Second Longest Bull Run in History

(Source: Glassnode)

Glassnode analysts point out that a key indicator for assessing the stages of the bull run cycle is the number of days that BTC's circulation remains above the +1 standard deviation range:

Current cycle: 273 days (the second longest in history)

2015–2018 Cycle: 335 Days (Longest in History)

2018–2022 cycle: significantly shorter than the current one

This means that Bitcoin has been in a prolonged high-level running phase, which closely aligns with the characteristics of a bull run in the later stages of history.

Demand Cooling: Weak Capital Inflow After Reaching New Highs

Last week's peak: BTC reached a historic high of 124,000 US dollars.

Changes in demand: Capital inflow weakens, and realized profits are below the highs of previous bull runs.

Selling pressure situation: Long-term holders (LTH) are taking profits at high levels, but the selling pressure is relatively mild.

Glassnode commented: "Although selling pressure has eased, the market has failed to maintain upward momentum, which is a typical signal in the later stages of a cycle."

Capital Rotation: alts Derivatives Trading Volume Surpasses Bitcoin

(Source: Glassnode)

Recently, funds are rapidly flowing from Bitcoin to alts, especially in the derivatives market:

Major altcoins' open contracts: Pulled back after reaching $60.2 billion (historical high)

Ethereum (ETH) perpetual contract trading volume: for the first time surpasses Bitcoin, creating a historical new high.

Capital flow interpretation: Investors are increasing speculation and allocation in alts, typically seen in the late stage of a bull run.

Glassnode pointed out: "Such obvious rotation of trading activities strengthens investors' growing interest in the altcoin space."

Historical Patterns: Altcoin Season Prelude

Historically, the capital rotation in the later stage of a bull run often serves as a prelude to altcoin season:

1. Bitcoin led the way by hitting new highs and entering a consolidation phase.

2. Funds are shifting towards more volatile altcoins in search of high returns.

3. The altcoin sector is experiencing a short-term explosion.

The current market structure is highly consistent with this, and sectors such as ETH, exchange tokens, and oracle tokens have already benefited first.

Current Market Price

BTC: $112,800

ETH: $4,250

Although the price has retreated from its peak, the capital rotation and structural characteristics indicate that the market is still in an active phase, with the focus shifting from Bitcoin to alts.

Conclusion

Glassnode's analysis provides a key perspective for the market:

Bitcoin: The cycle has entered the later stages, demand has cooled but remains at a high level.

Alts: The rapid increase in capital and trading volume may indicate that the altcoin season is approaching.

For investors, this means that strategies need to be more flexible: while controlling risks, it is important to moderately pay attention to short-term opportunities in the alts sector, especially projects with significantly increased derivatives trading volume and on-chain activity.