Analysis: 5 on-chain indicators indicate that the bull market has just begun.
According to reports, on-chain indicators such as Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, and HODL Waves paint a bullish picture for Bitcoin investors. As emphasized by analyst "TLDR's ELI5" in an article on X on May 19th, these five on-chain indicators indicate that it is just the beginning.
1. Bitcoin's market share exceeds 56%: Historically, the bull market of cryptocurrencies began with Bitcoin's dominant position. Most traders have sold off their altcoins in the previous bear market cycle. According to data, Bitcoin still holds a high market dominance, slightly above 56%. Since October 2023, Bitcoin's market share has remained above 50%.
2. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score below 6: According to the chart, the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score, which compares the current market value or market capitalization of an asset with its historical average, typically reaches around 6 during peak cycles. Based on the data, it is currently less than half of that number and has not exceeded 6 since March 2021.
3. Puell Multiple has not reached 3: Puell Multiple is another indicator that is consistent with the peak of the cycle. The calculation method of this indicator is to divide the daily value of mined Bitcoin by the annual moving average of that value. According to the data, Puell Multiple dropped below 1 after the halving on April 20th. The peak exceeding 3 usually coincides with the top of the cycle, reaching only 2.4 during the price increase in mid-March 2024.
4. HODL Waves HODL Waves: According to the data, the chart of how much BTC different groups based on HODL Waves hold is bullish on Bitcoin. Realized Cap HODL Waves provides a macro perspective on how much Bitcoin people who recently made purchases hold compared to earlier periods. The decrease in the peak of the young wave segment indicates that selling pressure has been exhausted, and there may be more room for further upward movement.
5. The income of Bitcoin miners per hash value: The fifth bullish on-chain indicator is the income of miners per hash. It basically shows how much money miners have earned for their proof of work. Although it will decrease over time as the network difficulty increases, according to ELI5, the last two surges to $0.3 per hash per second occurred during previous market cycle peaks.
(Data source: MARTIN YOUNG)