Comprehensive Analysis of On-Chain Paths on Binance: Alpha, IDO, Futures, Spot, Which Method is More Advantageous?

Key Points Overview

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the token lifecycle performance of Binance's four major upline channels (Alpha, IDO, Futures, and Spot), and tracks the subsequent development of these projects on other mainstream exchanges, focusing on return performance, listing cadence, track preference, and valuation range.

! [Binance Listing Path Research: Alpha, IDO, Futures, and Spot are all disassembled, which way is the most beneficial?] ](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-3bb8a84bfacb5baa8dd8f591fb73e3fc)

Performance Review

• Most channels have a 14-day FDV median that is negative, indicating that the majority of projects reach their peak valuation upon launch.
• Alpha has the most explosive performance (average 220%), but with higher volatility.
• IDOs have good short-term gains and a high conversion rate (to Futures and Spot)
• Spot's short-term performance is relatively weak, possibly because it has become an exit point for early investors.
• In the secondary market, Bitget and Coinbase performed relatively well, while Bybit and Upbit had average performances.

Valuation Preferences across Different Platforms

• Spot prefers large market cap projects (>$500M)
• Alpha mainly supports early projects under $200M, suitable for testing the waters.
• IDO focuses on mid-sized projects in the range of $70M-$200M
• Bitget/Bybit range is flexible but leans towards projects with growth momentum or large market capitalization.
• Coinbase/Upbit prefer projects with strong compliance and high valuations.

Expected listing time for ###

• Alpha → Spot: Average of about 60 days
• IDO → Spot: Average about 17 days
• Futures → Spot: An average of only 14 days (the fastest channel)

Track Preference

• Alpha: Prefers Meme and AI projects
• IDO: More inclined towards infrastructure and AI projects
• Spot: Covers multiple areas such as infrastructure, Meme, and AI.
• Futures: Broader coverage, mainly supports infrastructure, AI, and Meme projects.

Coin Conversion Rate

• Alpha → Futures: 37.8%
• Alpha → Spot: 12.2%
• IDO → Futures: 66.7%
• IDO → Spot: 23.8%
• Achieving around 40% FDV growth is a common characteristic of entering the next stage of the platform.

Performance on Other Platforms

• Bitget is the most friendly trading platform for Alpha/IDO projects.
• Bybit also has a high acceptance of IDO projects.
• Coinbase/Upbit has a limited number of listed projects, with strict review processes and longer cycles.

In-depth Analysis

This study provides an in-depth analysis of the lifecycle performance of project tokens in the Binance listing channel and traces the listing paths of these projects on other major trading platforms. The analysis covers token return performance, listing timing, track preference and valuation distribution, aiming to provide strategic listing path suggestions for project parties and build a data-based price evaluation framework for investors.

Terminology Explanation

Binance Spot: The most basic trading platform, where users can buy and sell tokens at the current market price. After the transaction is completed, users can freely hold, transfer, or sell.

Binance Futures: Offers trading services for cryptocurrency derivatives, allowing users to go long or short and use leverage to amplify gains or losses.

Binance IDO: A public fundraising channel aimed at retail users, where users can participate in new project token issuance by staking BNB or completing specific tasks, usually occurring before the token officially launches on other platforms.

Binance Alpha: A project discovery platform that integrates multiple DEXs on the BNB Chain, supporting early-stage projects with growth potential, emphasizing experimentation and token diversity.

Research Scope

• Exchange Selection: Track projects initially launched on Binance series channels and their subsequent performance on Bitget, Bybit, Coinbase, and Upbit.
• Time range: Only includes launch events after February 2025, ensuring that the data aligns with current market logic.

It is crucial for both project parties and investors to understand the on-chain path:

• The project team can optimize resource allocation and launch rhythm accordingly.
• Investors can better formulate position management strategies and assess the risks of chasing high prices.

Price Discovery Analysis

Performance of Returns

We measured the fluctuation of FDV within 14 days after the token was launched to assess the short-term price discovery capability of different platforms. The FDV corresponding to the closing price on the first day of launch serves as the benchmark, comparing it to the highest FDV within the 14 days.

Overall, the median 14-day FDV across all platforms is negative, indicating that for most projects, the launch point is the peak valuation in the current cycle.

• Alpha: Average approximately +77%, median at -7.6%. Most projects have limited returns, but a few projects perform exceptionally well, exhibiting high volatility characteristics. Although performance is divergent, the downside is limited, providing investors with an asymmetric return structure.

IDO vs. Futures: median -16.3% and -21.7%, respectively, but mean +28% and -20%, respectively. This indicates that the majority of projects performed mediocrely, but a few high-quality projects significantly increased the overall average. The weaker performance of Futures is mainly due to the fact that most items are added after a period of time, which is past the peak of volatility.

• Spot: Median -29.7%, Mean -20%. As the most prestigious platform, the launch of Spot may instead become an exit point for early investors, putting pressure on the price.

• Other platforms: Bitget and Coinbase performed relatively steadily, with a median of -19.8% and an average of about 21% for Bitget; Coinbase had a median of -7.7% and an average of about 18%. Bybit and Upbit performed moderately, with averages of 8.9% (median -22.1%) and -5% (median -24.6%) respectively.

Bullish Potential Analysis

We measured the ratio of the highest FDV of the token within 14 days after its launch to the launch FDV, in order to assess the short-term upside potential provided by various platforms.

• Alpha: The average peak increase reached 220%, with a median of 19.7%. Although some projects have smaller fluctuations, many projects experienced significant surges after launch, demonstrating Alpha's strong capability as a price discovery platform.

• IDO: Average spike of about 75%, with a median of 11.5%. Most projects perform well in the market after going live.

• Futures: Average surge of 27%, median only 4.1%. As an auxiliary exposure platform, it has a certain impact on price movement.

• Spot: The performance is relatively weak, with an average peak of only 15% and a median of 0.9%. This may be because market expectations have been fully digested before the project went live.

• Other platforms: Coinbase is up 60% on average, with a median of 21.1%, which is the most catalytic effect of all trading platforms; Bybit and Bitget are up 70-80% on average, with a median of around 20%, with a good speculative atmosphere; Upbit was a weaker performer, surging 35% higher on average with a median of 0%.

Listing Valuation Distribution

Looking at the FDV distribution of projects launched on various platforms, projects at different valuation stages are suitable for choosing different launch channels:

• Spot: More than 60% of projects have an FDV higher than $500 million, showing a clear preference for large-cap projects. There are higher requirements for project scale and the background of investment institutions, making it more suitable for mature projects that have already reached a certain valuation.

• Alpha: Covers a wide range, with FDV mostly concentrated below $200 million. This aligns with its "experimental" positioning, making it suitable for projects that are in the early stages but have potential to try.

• Futures: More than half of the projects have an FDV exceeding $500 million, but there is also a certain distribution in the range of $70 million to $500 million. It is more of a follow-up channel for listed projects and is suitable for projects with relatively stable valuations.

• IDO: The FDV is mainly concentrated between 70 million and 200 million USD, indicating a preference for medium market cap projects. It is suitable for public offerings conducted after the product, community, and strategy are well-prepared.

• Other Platforms: Bitget covers a complete range from under 30 million to over 500 million, with high acceptance but a preference for projects with a certain level of popularity; Bybit has nearly half of its projects with an FDV above 500 million; almost all Coinbase projects are above 500 million; all Upbit listed projects are above 200 million.

Track Preference Analysis

Different platforms show significant preference differences in project track selection:

! [Binance Listing Path Research: Alpha, IDO, Futures, and Spot are all disassembled, which way is the most beneficial?] ](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-79438d63687431d5639d4defa400bb82)

IDO: It mainly supports infrastructure (7) and AI (6) projects, and the vertical distribution is concentrated, covering only 6 tracks. There is a clear focus on the underlying technology and emerging application scenarios.

• Spot: Prefers infrastructure (18), Meme (8), and AI (8) projects, while covering multiple categories such as DeFi, physical assets, and GameFi. The distribution among categories is the most balanced, but infrastructure still dominates.

• Futures: The platform has the most launched projects, including 35 infrastructure projects and 21 AI projects, with a significant number of Meme (14) and DeFi (8) projects as well. The coverage of sectors is broad, with a preference for active market projects that are narrative-driven.

• Alpha: Focused on Meme (25) and AI (20), highlighting speculative narratives and experimental themes. 10 infrastructure projects, as well as physical assets, DeFi, and GameFi.

Overall, AI projects are a popular track supported by all four major channels; Meme projects dominate in Alpha, with decent coverage in Spot and Futures as well; Infrastructure projects are the most popular core track after Alpha.

Listing Path Analysis

Regarding whether Alpha or IDO can serve as a springboard into Spot, the data shows:

! [Binance Listing Path Research: Alpha, IDO, Futures, and Spot are all disassembled, which way is the most beneficial?] ](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-893adce24f6646d1653a8c3c5cb92720)

• Alpha → Futures: Conversion rate 37.8% (31/82), which is a relatively effective front-end channel.
• Alpha → Spot: Conversion rate is only 12.2% (10/82)
• IDO → Futures: The conversion rate is as high as 66.7% (14/21)
• IDO → Spot: Conversion rate 23.8% (5/21), better than Alpha

Alpha is more suitable as an early testing channel, with over 30% of projects able to enter Futures, but to be promoted to Spot, strong fundamentals and market performance are still required. In contrast, IDO projects are more solid based on brand recognition and community foundation, possessing higher promotion potential.

Project Performance Threshold

How do projects that successfully advance to Spot typically perform in the early stages? Data shows:

! [Binance Listing Path Research: Alpha, IDO, Futures, and Spot are all disassembled, which way is the most beneficial?] ](https://img.gateio.im/social/moments-5cf81f18589069778fd02f83ac27b9ad)

• Alpha → Spot: The 14-day high number of projects in the alpha stage is only 5.2%, but the average value is as high as 113.5%, and the performance is very different. This shows that the launch of Spot does not rely entirely on market hype, and pays more attention to hard indicators such as product quality and user data.

• Other Paths: Alpha → Futures and the two IDO paths are relatively concentrated in the middle range of 30%-45% over a 14-day surge, showing relatively stable performance.

Overall, if a project can achieve an FDV growth of about 40%-50% within two weeks after launching on the pre-platform, it is more likely to gain further favor for Futures or Spot.

Waiting Time Analysis

How long does it typically take from the initial platform to the Spot launch? Data shows that:

• Alpha → Spot: Average waiting time is about 60 days, with some projects even exceeding 120 days. The distribution is wide and lacks predictability.
• Alpha → Futures: Average of only 30 days, pace is clearly faster than Spot.
• IDO → Spot/Futures: The average waiting time is 17 days, and most projects can be completed within 1 month after going live.
• Futures → Spot: Fastest, with an average of only 14 days, and the time distribution is highly concentrated.

If the project team wishes to quickly implement Spot launch, Futures is the most certain intermediary path at present.

Analysis of Other Trading Platforms

Apart from Binance, more and more projects are choosing to turn to other mainstream platforms after Alpha or IDO. How is the acceptance of these platforms?

Number of Listings

• Alpha Project: The listing rate on Bitget is 34.1% (28/82), Bybit is 17.1% (14/82), Coinbase is 6% (6/82), and Upbit has only listed 2 related projects. IDO Project: 61.9% (13/21) and 47.6% (10/21) on Bitget and Bybit, respectively, 9% on Upbit, and no record on Coinbase.

Compared to Alpha, IDO projects are more attractive on other platforms, possibly due to their stronger brand building and community foundations. Bitget and Bybit have particularly high acceptance rates for IDO projects, making them worthwhile extension paths for project parties.

Waiting Time for Launch

• Bitget: Alpha projects average about 14 days, while IDO projects are even faster, only 13 days. Some IDO projects even go live on the same day as their issuance.
• Bybit: The Alpha project will last about 13 days, and the IDO project can also go live on the same day of issuance.
• Coinbase: Only launches Alpha projects, averaging about 29 days.
• Upbit: Only launches IDO projects, averaging about 31 days.

Bitget and Bybit respond quickly, suitable for fast-paced launch strategies; Coinbase and Upbit have a slower pace and need to comply with local regulatory requirements.

Price Performance Comparison

The average increase in the first 14 days after Alpha and IDO projects are launched on various trading platforms:

• Bitget: Alpha project returns 41.8%, IDO project 29.2%, best performance
• Bybit: The Alpha project is -2.3%, the IDO project is 25.2%, with a preference for the IDO project.
• Coinbase and Upbit: The sample size is limited, and the statistical results have low reference value.

Overall, Bitget and Bybit have a stable performance in undertaking Binance projects, which is an important consideration for project parties when planning their go-live paths.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Binance's Alpha and IDO each have their advantages as front-end platforms.

• Alpha is more like an experimental ground, with a low entry threshold, suitable for early project exposure.
• IDOs have stronger brand endorsement, leading to higher conversion rates.

However, Spot conversion is still relatively scarce: the final promotion ratio of the Alpha project is only about 12%, and the IDO is only 24%. Project teams need to manage the rhythm well and understand the differences in waiting times for different paths.

At the same time, the project party should choose appropriate channels based on its own valuation stage:

• Early projects with a valuation below $200M can consider Alpha
• Medium-sized projects in the range of $70M-$200M are suitable for IDO.
• Large scale projects with a valuation above $500M are more suitable for directly seeking Spot listing.

In addition, the preferences of different platforms for project tracks should also be taken into account. AI projects are welcomed across almost all channels, Meme performs best in Alpha, while infrastructure projects are the most favored core track outside of Alpha.

For projects that cannot directly enter Binance Spot, Bitget and Bybit provide viable alternative paths, especially with a higher acceptance of projects from Alpha and IDO, which is worth considering by project parties.