Guotai Junan: There are six major "misunderstandings" about the recognition of stablecoins, and their value is not absolutely stable.

On June 20, Guotai Haitong Securities Research recently released the report "Stablecoins: How to Reshape Global Currencies and Assets", which analyzed in detail the development status and prospects of the stablecoin market and its impact on major types of assets, and pointed out that there are six "misunderstandings" about stablecoins, and their value is not absolutely stable. Myth 1: The value of stablecoins is absolutely stable. The essence of a stablecoin is a credit extension of the anchored asset, and its value is not only technically de-anchored, but also affected by the fluctuation of the anchored asset, so the value of the stablecoin is not absolutely stable, but relatively stable. Myth 2: All fiat currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities. Not all currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities, and the final development of different fiat stablecoins depends on the acceptance of fiat currencies themselves, and the most widely trusted fiat stablecoins will appear "winner-takes-all". Myth 3: U.S. dollar stablecoins will weaken U.S. dollar credit. The rapid development of US dollar stablecoins will not impact the US dollar system, but will further strengthen the US dollar's position, because US dollar stablecoins have broadened the functions and use of the US dollar. The US dollar stablecoin has a greater impact on the fiat currencies of other countries, especially economies with large exchange rate fluctuations. Myth 4: U.S. dollar stablecoins are a "lifesaver" for U.S. bonds. The U.S. dollar stablecoin market has only slightly eased the pressure on U.S. short-term bonds, but the short-term bond market is ultimately dominated by the Federal Reserve. U.S. dollar stablecoins cannot alleviate the pressure on U.S. long-term bonds, and on the whole, U.S. dollar stablecoins have little impact on the U.S. bond market. Myth 5: U.S. dollar stablecoins will significantly increase the supply of U.S. dollar currency. The emergence of the US dollar stablecoin will indeed delegate a part of the US dollar issuance authority from the Federal Reserve to the issuing company. However, the Fed, as a major participant in the money supply, is still able to regulate the total amount of dollar liquidity. Like a linked exchange rate economy, the monetary regulator can regulate the money supply according to market conditions, despite the existence of multiple note-issuing banks. Myth 6: Stablecoins will drive the rapid development of the RWA market. The support of stablecoins for RWA is more reflected at the transaction level, and the development of the RWA market ultimately depends on the quality of the underlying assets. At present, RWA is still in the early stage of development, and the path selection may show the characteristics of "credit first" and "liquidity first".