Với việc giá dầu giảm, cấu trúc thị trường dầu đang dần biến mất một cách nhanh chóng

The bullish market structure of Brent crude oil has almost completely disappeared for the first time in years. The price of Brent oil futures for the near month is only a few cents higher than the contract price in 2031. A year ago, the price difference between the front and back ends of the crude oil futures curve exceeded $20 per barrel. Part of the reason for the decrease in the price difference is the expectation of oversupply in the market next year, but the trading dynamics have also changed, exacerbating the decline in oil prices to the lowest level since 2021. Since the end of 2020, the front two years of the Brent crude oil futures curve have been in a bullish structure, with traders willing to pay higher prices for oil in the short term than in the future. OPEC and its allies were forced to postpone their planned production increase last week, which means there is a significant supply buffer in the global market. At the same time, speculators, led by algorithm-driven traders, have the most pessimistic stance on oil in more than a decade, further amplifying price fluctuations. Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, said, 'I think the downward movement of the curve reflects the increase in spare capacity. With OPEC delaying the resumption of production, spare capacity is increasing and people are worried about oversupply in 2025.'